Short-term power output forecasting of the photovoltaics in Bulgaria

Abstract

The hourly power output forecasting of the photovoltaics is crucial for scheduling and dispatching purposes in order to minimize imbalances arisen in settlement process and to precisely define the required balancing reserves. The photovoltaics are mainly connected to the distribution grid. Their production creates different levels and directions of power flows during the day that is important for the grid assessments, including maintenance scheduling. In this report is presented a forecasting model suitable for markets perspectives and security assessments of the grid.