Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios

Abstract

Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having Massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. We show in this work how a Logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. We find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the Average Revenue from Users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.