Impact analysis

Abstract

Impact analysis is the assessment in terms of monetary loss of any potential threat to the organization. Impact analysis combines the Bayesian decisionprocess withthe Delphi method, as modified herein. A computer can be used to produce a statistical summary useful in fore-casting. This paper will describe impact analysis.First, brief summaries of the Bayesian decision process and the Delphi technique are offered.Then, the method for impact analysis is outlined, followed by a description of a recent application.The application was developed at the Weyer- haeuser Company, Tacoma, ashington. Weyer- haeuser is one of the largest forest products companies in the world. The paper concludes with suggestions for other applications.