Probability Distribution of Power System Blackouts

Abstract

This paper proposes a statistical distribution of blackouts for power systems through the employment of statistical theory. Two groups of factors involved in the cascading events leading to blackouts are explored and explained. The mechanism of blackouts is proposed based on these two factors so that the statistical law of blackouts can be derived by using statistical and probability theory. The theoretical proofs are given in obtaining the statistical law of blackouts. Sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to perform the numerical tests on different power systems to justify the proposed law for blackouts.