Prediction of landscape dynamic changes in Shangri-la County based on Markov process model

2012 IEEE Symposium on Robotics and Applications (ISRA) Pub Date : 2012-06-03 DOI:10.1109/ISRA.2012.6219187

Hui Li, Pengfei Su, S. Wang, W. Yao, Xiao Yang, F. Meng, M. Zhang, Na Yi

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

We were studied the changes of landscape patterns in Shangri-la County by using GIS, RS, GPS techniques and TM images of 1990 and 2006, and established the Shangri-la County landscape classification system, and forecasted dynamic changes of the future landscape in the area. The result indicates landscape in the Shangri-la County was primarily temperature coniferous forest and shrub and meadows, with other landscape patches embedded. In 1990-2006, the most transfers among landscape types were between temperature coniferous forest, shrub and meadows and hard leaves broad-leaved forest, the largest rise were town land and farmland. In the support of GIS Markov model forecast indicates human interference to the regional influence will further strengthen in the next 16 years, urban land and farmland area will continue to increase, semi-humid evergreen broad-leaved forest area will decrease constantly, whole landscape tend to be fragmentation, the ecological environment will be received serious influence by human activities in the study area.

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基于马尔可夫过程模型的香格里拉县景观动态变化预测

利用GIS、RS、GPS技术和TM影像，对香格里拉县1990年和2006年的景观格局变化进行了研究，建立了香格里拉县景观分类体系，并对未来景观的动态变化进行了预测。结果表明:香格里拉县域景观以温针叶林和灌丛草甸为主，并有其他景观斑块嵌入。1990—2006年，不同景观类型间迁移最多的是温热针叶林、灌丛草甸和硬叶阔叶林，上升幅度最大的是城镇用地和农田。在GIS马尔可夫模型的支持下预测表明，未来16年人类活动对区域影响将进一步加强，城市用地和农田面积将继续增加，半湿润常绿阔叶林面积将不断减少，整体景观趋于破碎化，研究区生态环境将受到人类活动的严重影响。

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2012 IEEE Symposium on Robotics and Applications (ISRA)

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