ASSESSMENT OF THE PANDEMIC SHOCK ON THE TOURISM SECTOR - THE CASE OF CROATIA

Abstract

Due to the pandemic crisis, the decline in cross-border travel has caused deterioration of consumption and induced the collapse of domestic consumption. Finally, the drop of the consumption in travel service affected the travel trade balance and caused decline of the economy. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the pandemic shock on the touristic sector in Croatia and to measure the effect of this negative trend. The research will be conducted using the SVAR model to disclose pandemic shock. The analysis considers the effect of the pandemic shock on the performance of the tourism sector, what is approximated by CROBEX turist index. Also, the analysis tests the impact of pandemic shock on turnover of the hotel industry. The results confirm the large-scale shock in the touristic sector and implicate the importance of measuring shock in assessing future trends and proposing measures for economic recovery in Croatia.