Exploring Granger Non-causality of the Japanese Employment Rate and the Trade in Services

Abstract

This paper uses annual data of the Japanese in services for the period of 1980-2018 to explore the causal relationship between the imports and the exports. We find that: 1) in the short-run, there exist no Granger causal relationship among the employment rate and the Japanese trade in services; 2) in the long-run, both of the Japanese positions in the exports and the imports in the world are Granger causality of the employment rate, but that of the exports has negative effect while that of the imports exerts positive effect on the employment rates, and 3) neither employment rates nor export position in the world trade in services can significantly Granger cause the Japanese import position in the world service trade. Keywords—Granger causal relationship; exports; imports; trade in services; Japan