Argument Mapper: Countering Cognitive Biases in Analysis with Critical (Visual) Thinking

Abstract

Humans are vulnerable to cognitive biases such as neglect of probability, framing effect, confirmation bias, conservatism (belief revision) and anchoring. Argument Mapper addresses these biases in intelligence analysis by providing an easy-to-use, theoretically sound, web-based interactive software tool that enables the application of evidence-based reasoning to analytic questions. Designed in collaboration with analytic methodologists, this tool combines structured argument mapping methodology with visualization techniques to help analysts make sense of complex problems and overcome cognitive biases. The tool uses Baconian probability and conjunctive logic to automatically calculate the inferential force on the upper level hypothesis. Evaluations with 16 analysts showed the tool was easy to use and easy to understand.