Multi-index Quantification and Its Statistical Model Constraint to Improve the Quality of Project Evaluation

Chunhua Xu, Naiyong Liu, Xinlong Qin, Rongfang Liu, Xudong Zhang, Yanying Ma, Zhang Jie
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Abstract

: With the transformation of geological prospecting units in China to multiple business areas, the types and contradictions of identification and evaluation of technological achievements have also increased substantially. Taking 288 project achievements completed by a Bureau in the six years from 2016 to 2021 as an example, this paper quantitatively extracts and sets up a variety of award scoring parameters, and divides the outstanding project achievement awards into: Geological exploration, engineering construction, mining development, ecological civilization construction, surveying and mapping geographic information, scientific research and prediction, and technical advisory services. The selection scope covers all industrial categories in the transition period of geological prospecting units. The evaluation results reflect the role of opening up the grade and encouraging the advanced. The revision and formulation of the management method has improved a lot in terms of fairness, impartial and rationality, but the leading role in scientific and technological innovation is still insufficient and needs to be further improved. By statistical analysis, the distribution model of the quantitative score of the award is established, and it is considered that the better award results should conform to the normal distribution or T distribution with initial right deviation. With the evaluation system from the emphasis on output value to the emphasis on innovation-oriented, the mathematical statistics distribution law of the evaluation result score should show the change of à distribution characteristic form under the condition of á = 4.
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提高项目评价质量的多指标量化及其统计模型约束
随着中国地勘单位向多业务领域转型,技术成果鉴定评价的类型和矛盾也大幅增加。本文以某局2016 - 2021年6年间完成的288项项目成果为例,定量提取并设置了多种评奖评分参数,将优秀项目成品奖分为:地质勘查、工程建设、矿业开发、生态文明建设、测绘地理信息、科学研究与预测、技术咨询服务。选择范围涵盖了地勘单位转型时期的所有行业类别。评价结果体现了开放等级、鼓励先进的作用。管理办法的修订和制定在公平、公正、合理方面有了很大的提高,但对科技创新的引领作用仍然不足,需要进一步提高。通过统计分析,建立了奖励定量得分的分布模型,认为较好的奖励结果应符合正态分布或初始右偏的T分布。随着评价体系从强调产出价值向强调创新导向转变,评价结果得分的数理统计分布规律在 = 4条件下应呈现Ã分布特征形式的变化。
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