Evaluating the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Measures Based on SEIR Model

Yuanhao Wang
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern as global confirmed cases continue to grow. Harsh policies have been taken in both cities and rural areas. This article uses a modified SEIR model, counting asymptomatic infectious people and combined data from health authorities and simulation to analyze the efficacy of prevention and control measures. This paper also calculates the basic reproduction number of COVID-19. The uncertainty caused by asymptomatic infectious people is testified in this study. Under tense prevention and control measures, the epidemic of COVID-19 will be resolved soon in spite of the presence of asymptomatic infectious people.
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基于SEIR模型的新冠肺炎防控措施效果评价
随着全球确诊病例持续增加,2019冠状病毒病疫情已成为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。在城市和农村地区都采取了严厉的政策。本文采用改进的SEIR模型,统计无症状感染者,结合卫生部门数据和模拟分析防控措施的效果。本文还计算了COVID-19的基本复制数。无症状感染者引起的不确定性在本研究中得到证实。在紧张的防控措施下,即使出现无症状感染者,疫情也会很快得到解决。
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