Grey relation analysis and trend predication for agricultural mechanization development levels in major granary provinces in China

Sheng Wang, Chen Yang, Xue An, H. Duan, Yongchang Yu
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Abstract

In this paper, by using grey system theory, grey relation analysis and trend prediction was carried out for the influencing factors of agricultural mechanization development levels in major granary provinces in China. At present, the total power of agricultural mechanization, total income from agricultural mechanization, fuel consumption for agricultural production have great influence on the agricultural mechanization development levels. Meanwhile, the development of agricultural machinery industry also belongs to the extensive mode of profit driven. For the next 6 years, the influencing factors were predicted by using the grey relation analysis model, and give proposals about changing the current domestic agricultural enterprises for the status of the pursuit of profit in the low-end agricultural market competition, increasing investment in R & D funding and so on.
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中国粮仓大省农机化发展水平的灰色关联分析及趋势预测
本文运用灰色系统理论,对中国粮食大省农机化发展水平的影响因素进行了灰色关联分析和趋势预测。目前,农业机械化总功率、农业机械化总收入、农业生产耗油量对农业机械化发展水平有较大影响。同时,农机行业的发展也属于利润驱动的粗放模式。运用灰色关联分析模型对未来6年的影响因素进行了预测,并提出了改变目前国内农业企业在低端农业市场竞争中追求利润、加大研发资金投入等现状的建议。
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