Metod of Foresight Modeling in Electronic Space Projects

Abstract

In the projects of space electronics, because of its constant complication, the existing methods of the Foresight involving qualified specialist designers of electronic equipment as experts, no longer provide guaranteed solutions for ensuring important reliability indicators. In this paper, the authors propose to select computer programs and carry out comprehensive modeling to increase the efficiency of the expert panels at the stage of technical design of space electronic equipment. Thus, experts receive complete information about the physical processes in future electronic equipment. Considering this information, they make decisions on the use of these or other advanced technologies, and can also more reasonably express their proposals on synthesized approaches to creating electronic equipment for long periods of its use in space. This method should be referred to as the Foresight Modeling method. This paper describes the basics of the theory of this method and gives an example of an algorithm for the Foresight Modeling of thermal processes in the design of an electronic power supply system. Taking into account the resource of this system, experts can more accurately judge the long-term existence of new-generation spacecraft.