Re-visiting the Drivers for Increasing External Debt

Abstract

This paper investigates the drives for increasing external debt in an open economy Nigeria over the period 1970 to 2017 using general to specific approach (GETS) approach (Hendry, 1995). The Johansen cointegration test confirms that variables have long run relationship. The empirical results for both long run and short run estimates indicate oil price, domestic savings and fiscal deficits play a significant role in increasing external debt in Nigeria. The study also found evidence that the dummy variables for exchange rate and debt relief also accelerate the growth of external. This finding indicates that, after the multilateral debt relief between 2005 and 2006, fresh loans are still coming to Nigeria. To this end, Nigeria should focus on investment in real sectors especially in agriculture and manufacturing to increase export performance. This would enable the country to generate adequate foreign earnings and stimulate domestic savings, and reduce reliance on oil revenue.