Hysteresis Hypotheses

A. Hájek
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Abstract

This chapter assimilates the Sorites Paradox and the Preface Paradox, drawing parallels between reasoning with uncertainty and reasoning with vague concepts (a theme that Dorothy Edgington has explored). It discusses experiments in which subjects are taken along soritical series of coloured patches, displaying so-called reverse hysteresis in their responses. The chapter offers an explanation of why reverse hysteresis is rational there. It presents a variant of the Preface Paradox—the Progressive Preface Paradox—that is analogous to the Sorites Paradox and its associated experiments, and it offers an analogous explanation of why reverse hysteresis is again rational. The explanation’s central idea is that ‘belief’ is context-dependent.
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滞后的假设
本章吸收了索里斯悖论和前言悖论,在不确定性推理和模糊概念推理(多萝西·爱丁顿探索的主题)之间建立了相似之处。它讨论了一些实验,在这些实验中,受试者被带到一系列具有讽刺意味的彩色斑块上,在他们的反应中显示出所谓的反向滞后。本章解释了为什么反向滞后在那里是合理的。它提出了前言悖论的一个变体——进步前言悖论——它类似于索里斯悖论及其相关的实验,它提供了一个类似的解释,为什么反向滞后又是理性的。这种解释的中心思想是“信念”是依赖于语境的。
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Grammar Matters Hysteresis Hypotheses Counterfactuals and Probability
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