Historical Dynamic Modeling (Simulation Experience)

Olegs Carkovs, Dr. oec
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present work "synchronizes" the achievements in various fields of natural science (mathematics, cybernetics, information theory, sociology, economics and history) to understand the modern picture of the world. The conceptual model proposed in the paper is simplified and serves to illustrate certain socioeconomic processes of the past and present. Undoubtedly, there is a "confirmation bias", since there is an element of subjectivism in every analysis. It can only be overcome by constructive criticism, not by ignoring facts, rejecting mathematical proofs and denying logical conclusions, for "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" ( Aldous Huxley).
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历史动态建模(仿真体验)
目前的工作“同步”了自然科学各个领域(数学、控制论、信息论、社会学、经济学和历史学)的成就,以理解现代世界的图景。本文提出的概念模型是简化的,用于说明过去和现在的某些社会经济过程。毫无疑问,存在一种“确认偏差”,因为在每一种分析中都有主观主义的成分。它只能通过建设性的批评来克服,而不是通过忽视事实、拒绝数学证明和否认逻辑结论来克服,因为“事实不会因为被忽视而不复存在”(奥尔德斯·赫胥黎)。
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