Analysis of population controllability and prediction of population structure based on constraint system

Yue Xiao-ning, Meng Zhao-jia, Xie Feng-dan
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Abstract

It is established that population structure prediction time-varying restriction system model, and its controllability of the system is analyzed through grey system theory and control theory. Based on Liapunov central limit theorem, the conclusion that child-bearing age of women is subject to the normal distribution is obtained, and the density function of fertility age is given. Fertility restricted function is introduced, and we define population migration quantity as control variable, and state feedback gain matrix is established by fertility restricted function, on the basis of which, the discrete time-varying population structure restriction system is established, at the same time its controllability is analyzed by the fertility restriction function and population structure is predicted in a closed region. Finally, error analysis is made through the model, and accuracy and dependability of the model are proved.
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基于约束系统的人口可控性分析与人口结构预测
建立了种群结构预测时变约束系统模型,并运用灰色系统理论和控制理论分析了系统的可控性。根据Liapunov中心极限定理,得出了妇女生育年龄服从正态分布的结论,并给出了生育年龄的密度函数。引入生育限制函数,将人口迁移量定义为控制变量,通过生育限制函数建立状态反馈增益矩阵,在此基础上建立离散时变人口结构限制系统,同时利用生育限制函数分析其可控性,并在封闭区域内预测人口结构。最后通过模型进行误差分析,证明了模型的准确性和可靠性。
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