Deviation from G-R Law before Great Earthquakes and Recommendation for Earthquake Forecast Models Based on That Feature

Abstract

Frequency-magnitude distributions are generally expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law. However, frequency-magnitude distributions are sometimes a convex-upward curve rather than a straight line, departing from the G-R law. An η value originally introduced by Utsu (1978) is an indicator that represents the degree of deviation from the G-R law. We investigate η values before and after sixM7-9 class mainshocks off the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. The η values tend to become small (i.e., the distribution deviates from the GR law) before the mainshocks, and then increase (i.e., recovering to the G-R law). Taking this characteristic into account, we suggest a simple and challenging earthquake forecast model based on η values. Probability gain of the optimized forecast model by a retrospective test becomes 2.24-3.03, and the alarm rate and the truth rate become 100% and 0.14-0.47%, respectively. According to the result of the forecast model applied to the latest seismicity, we should pay attention to seismicity off the coast southeast of Kanto district.