Self-organizing algorithm for pilot modeling the reaction of society to the phenomenon of the Black Swan

Abstract

The work is devoted to pilot modeling of the reaction of society to technogenic and biological sudden environmental influences. For the description, the methodology of the socio-technical landscape is used, which reflects the development of certain social practices in the digital and technical environments. At the bifurcation points of the evolution of the socio-technical landscape, the phenomena of the "Black Swan" and "Boomerang Blow" arise - a powerful impulse effect on the landscape. There is an urgent problem of predicting reaction reactions. The aim of the work is the development and pilot study of a self-organizing algorithm of structural-parametric identification of transients. Impacts of a technical and biological nature are considered as objects of research: the development of the use of artificial intelligence and computer technology in medicine and the spread of COVID 19. Models for countries: UK, Russia and Uzbekistan are given. It is shown that the reaction of the sociotechnical landscape is acceptable described by homogeneous differential equations of the second degree with a complex exponentially harmonic function on the right side. The most adequate mathematical models are given. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant # 19-18-00504.