Modeling the Causal Relationship Among Variables that Influencing the Capability of Dairy Supply Chain in Indonesia

Abstract

The primary object of this research is to explain and demonstrate the complex structure that links each variable within the dairy milk supply chain in Indonesia through the causal loop diagram (CLD). Referring to the structure of the National Model developed by Forrester (1989), there were six CLDs which belong to six sub-systems used to describe the relationship between variables in the dairy supply chain. The first CLD belong to population and consumption sub-system. The second until sixth CLD belong to milk production sub-system, dairy cattle sub-system, dairy cattle population sub-system, dairy farmer’s income sub-system, and government sub-system. According to CLD, there are minimal one important drivers in each sub-system. The findings in this paper put forward some important issues that require for running the full simulation of some proposed scenarios.