An Examination of the Former Centrally Planned Economies 25 Years after the Fall of Communism

James D. Gwartney, Hugo M. Montesinos
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

This report analyzes the changes in economic freedom, political institutions, and performance of 25 former centrally planned (FCP) economies following the collapse of communism. The degree of economic freedom among these countries varied considerably. The FCP countries with higher levels of economic freedom in 2015 as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World summary ratings tended to grow more rapidly, achieve larger increases in international trade, and attract more foreign direct investment than their counterparts with less economic freedom. Differences among the FCP countries in the protection of civil liberties, democratic political institutions, and administration of government with less corruption are also identified and analyzed. A regression model of economic growth during 1995-2015 for 122 countries was developed and used to examine the determinants of growth and the performance of the FCP economies relative to high-income and other developing countries throughout the world. Regression analysis was also used to analyze the life satisfaction measure of the World Values Survey. The regression analysis indicates that economic freedom exerts a strong positive impact on both the growth of per capita GDP and the life satisfaction of individuals. Finally, the economic freedom area ratings were used to identify strengths and weaknesses of the FCP economies. Most of the FCP countries registered substantial increases in economic freedom in the areas of size of government, access to sound money, international trade, and regulation. But they have failed to improve their legal systems, and several FCP countries have even experienced recent deteriorations in this area. While the FCP countries achieved impressive growth and closed the income gap relative to high-income countries during 1995-2015, without improvements in the legal area, it is unlikely that this progress will continue. The addendum provides additional details for ten countries that have made the transition from communism to markets most successfully.
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共产主义垮台25年后对前中央计划经济的考察
本报告分析了25个前中央计划经济体在共产主义崩溃后在经济自由、政治制度和经济表现方面的变化。这些国家的经济自由程度差别很大。根据2015年世界经济自由度总结评级,经济自由度较高的FCP国家往往比经济自由度较低的国家增长更快,国际贸易增长更大,吸引更多的外国直接投资。FCP国家在保护公民自由、民主政治制度和减少腐败的政府管理方面的差异也被识别和分析。开发了一个1995-2015年122个国家的经济增长回归模型,并用于检查FCP经济体相对于世界上高收入国家和其他发展中国家的增长决定因素和表现。回归分析也用于分析世界价值观调查的生活满意度测量。回归分析表明,经济自由度对人均GDP增长和个人生活满意度均有较强的正向影响。最后,经济自由地区评级被用来确定FCP经济体的优势和劣势。大多数FCP国家在政府规模、获得稳健货币、国际贸易和监管等方面的经济自由度大幅提高。但他们未能改善自己的法律体系,几个FCP国家最近在这方面甚至出现了恶化。虽然FCP国家在1995-2015年期间取得了令人瞩目的增长,缩小了与高收入国家的收入差距,但如果法律领域没有改善,这种进展不太可能持续下去。增编提供了十个最成功地从共产主义向市场过渡的国家的详细情况。
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