Shifting Policy Strategy in Keynesianism

A. Noguchi
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Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of Keynesianism making use of concepts offered by Imre Lakatos. The Keynesian "hard core" lies in its views regarding the instability of the market economy, its "protective belt" in the policy strategy for macroeconomic stabilization using fiscal policy and monetary policy. Keynesianism developed as a policy program to counter classical liberalism, which attributes priority to the autonomy of the market economy and tries to limit the role of government. In general, the core of every policy program consists in an unfalsifiable worldview and a value judgment that remain unchanged. On the other hand, a policy strategy with a protective belt inevitably evolves owing to changes in reality and advances in scientific knowledge. This is why the Keynesian policy strategy has shifted from being fiscal-led to one that is monetary-led because of the influence of monetarism; further, the Great Recession has even led to their integration.
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凯恩斯主义政策策略的转变
本文利用拉卡托斯的概念分析了凯恩斯主义的演变。凯恩斯主义的“硬核”在于对市场经济不稳定性的看法,其“保护带”在于运用财政政策和货币政策稳定宏观经济的政策策略。凯恩斯主义是作为一种反对古典自由主义的政策纲领而发展起来的,古典自由主义把市场经济的自主性放在首位,并试图限制政府的作用。总的来说,每一个政策方案的核心都包含一个不可证伪的世界观和一个不变的价值判断。另一方面,由于现实的变化和科学知识的进步,带有保护带的政策战略必然会发展。由于货币主义的影响,凯恩斯主义的政策策略从财政主导转向货币主导,原因就在于此;此外,大衰退甚至导致了它们的融合。
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