{"title":"Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model","authors":"Fadhlan Zuhdi, Achmad Maulana, K. R. Rambe","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13How to Cite:Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456.","PeriodicalId":266329,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13How to Cite:Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456.
哥伦比亚咖啡出口在短期内会影响印尼咖啡出口,因此本研究旨在预测未来印尼和哥伦比亚咖啡的出口量。该研究使用了2001年至2021年的时间序列数据,并使用ARIMA模型进行了进一步分析。根据预测,印尼咖啡出口预计将以平均1.14%的价格增长,潜在增长率为1.79%。然而,这一结果仍然需要达到预期值,因为2025年印度尼西亚预计的咖啡出口量仅为429172吨,或低于2011年哥伦比亚咖啡的出口量。这一发现表明,印度尼西亚咖啡出口趋于停滞不前,与哥伦比亚咖啡出口的增长相比,被认为是低的。JEL分类:C22, C53, E37, F17, q13如何引用:Zuhdi, F. Maulana A. S. & Rambe, K. R.(2023)。用ARIMA模型预测印尼和哥伦比亚咖啡在世界市场的出口量。意义[j] .经济研究,12(1),57-68。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456。