Scenarios for the Development of Electromobility

Abstract

Electromobility provides the basis for a fundamental, worldwide paradigm shift concerning individual mobility. This change will entail an extensive shift in the market, affecting several industries and resulting in a complex and dynamic market environment. Given these circumstances, being prepared for different potential development trends is crucial for both individual and collective success in the electric mobility market. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to generate one major scenario for the successful development of electromobility in Germany. This scenario points out a consistent combination of development trends for certain key factors, shaping electromobility. Current scientific work regarding the future of electromobility primarily focusses on technological aspects and, for the most part, neglects services as key for bridging the gap between technology and the customer. This desideratum for research is addressed by the present paper, which seeks to develop holistic scenarios that consider all key factors that are relevant in the context of electromobility. A fundamental finding of this study is that services can have a great impact on the success of electromobility, even in the absence of significant technological progress.