UNDERSTANDING THE THERMAL COAL MOVEMENTS FROM COLOMBIA TO CHILE THROUGH THE PANAMA CANAL USING LOGIT MODELS- LOOKING AHEAD

Abstract

This study attempted to specify logit models for bulkers transporting mostly thermal coal from the East Coast of Colombia to Chile through the Panama Canal compared to the alternative route. The preliminary proposed predictors for the logit models included voyage cost variables and Canal's attributes. For the route choice of coal from the East Coast of Colombia to Chile, voyage cost factors such as Panama Canal cost, distance difference between Panama versus alternative route, post arrival of vessel to the next port and the maximum transit draft were important factors in this choice, as well as Panama Canal attributes such as vessel arrivals at the Panama Canal and the Panamax Plus requirement to transit the neopanamax locks. The route choice involved the Panama Canal and Cape Horn/Magellan Strait in the Southern tip of South America. This study analyzed coal traffic between October 1, 2016, and September 30, 2020, and briefly discussed the future of coal movements through Panama, given Chile's long term plans to generate electricity using renewanable energy sources and hydrogen. This paper is a contribution to the discrete choice literature and attempted to provide insights into route choice factors involving the Panama Canal, proposing new preliminary explanatory variables to better understand route choices that may apply in future Panama Canal studies. The study will be a contribution to the universal maritime coal transportation literature, and it is a continuation on research related to the Panama canal, particularly on route choices using AIS information.