U.S. Civil War Redux? A Prevue

Abstract

The thought that the United States could engage in a second civil war is disturbing, as it represents a significant threat to the stability not only of one nation, but also of the world. Harbouring the idea of such a conflict is not as outlandish as it might seem at first glance: Several movements that have gained attention in recent years seem to be preparing for such a scenario. The two that are most interesting, essentially because they come with territorial claims, are the Greater Idaho Movement, which advocates for the secession of rural counties in eastern Oregon and northern California to join the state of Idaho and create a super-state, and the American Redoubt, which supports the establishment of a territorial entity that would include most of Greater Idaho plus Montana and Wyoming. Significantly, northern Colorado, along with North and South Dakota, while ideologically in tune with American Redoubt political and cultural philosophies, are specifically excluded in the territorial plan for this super state, as they are mainly flat and therefore difficult to defend against a modern mechanised military. It is obvious that the American Redoubt’s hypothetical defensive operations are being calculated to thwart United States Army advances in case of conflict. I will argue here that these movements’ ideology is secessionist, and that they may cause armed conflict in the United States, the likelihood and scale of which is difficult to determine.