China, ASEAN, US in the South China Sea: Rebalancing the Triangle

Abstract

China, ASEAN and the US remain the most significant players in the South China Sea. Relationships among the triangle set the tone for the situation in the South China Sea. In recent years, action-reaction cycle in the South China Sea has increased tension in the region, deteriorated relations between China and its neighboring countries, posed challenges for ASEAN in maintaining centrality in the regional security structure, and strengthened US determination to "rebalance" toward Asia. The South China Sea issue has become the bellwether for how China will rise peacefully and play by established rules, a test case for the US in sustaining its supremacy in the region and a challenger for ASEAN unity. This paper will explore the interests and policy of China, ASEAN and the US in the South China Sea, analyze the interrelationships within the triangle in recent years and envisage its implications for regional stability.