Integrated uncertainty analysis for dealing with uncertainties in sustainability-led energy infrastructure transitions

Abstract

In this paper, a conceptual framework for integrated uncertainty analysis is developed. The goal of the framework is to help identify all sorts of uncertainties in an integrated way and to assist the development of strategies to deal with major uncertainties, acknowledging that a significant part of the uncertainties cannot easily be eliminated and that policy and management strategies need to be developed to explicitly take this into account. The framework is applied to the energy system in order to identify uncertainties related to the future development of the energy infrastructure system, and to analyse and assess the possible impact and importance of the various uncertainties, and to find strategies to deal with them.