2015 Nigerian Presidential Election: Which Factors Drive Voter Turnoutthe Most?

Abstract

This paper assesses the relative influence of the factors that spur voter turnout in the 2015 Nigerian presidential election. The influence of eleven variables (drawn from theories) on voter turnout was weighed using binary logistic regression. The logistic regression model was statistically significant, χ2 (11)=74.57, p<0.01. The model explained 25.1% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance in voter turnout and correctly classified 76.4% of cases. Males were 1.16 times more likely to turnout than females. Among the variables, political interest (p<0.0001) and political trust (p<0.0001) added significantly to the model. The results revealed that political interest and political trust influenced voter turnout more than other factors. However, socio-economic status had some effect on voter turnout. Thus increasing political interest and political trust were associated with an increased likelihood of voter turnout.