A Closed-Form Solution for the Production-Break Retrograde Method

Abstract

This article explores and discusses concepts surrounding the multi-step retrograde analysis process for learning curve production breaks that was popularized by George Anderlohr, in his 1969 Industrial Engineering article “What Production Breaks Cost.” Mr. Anderlohr based much of his analysis using the cumulative average curve method, but the basic principles have been widely accepted and used to calculate the equivalent calculation using the unit theory learning curves. Because Mr. Anderlohr's method is considered the standard for such calculations and because the method is relatively simple to perform, not much has been written to either simplify the process or to explain what appear to be anomalies in his methodology and other designated official sources such as that published by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The article will briefly explore and answer the more vexing of the anomaly issues and then introduce a single closed-form equation to bypass the multi-step method which can save the cost analyst time and minimizes opportunities for trivial mathematical errors.