Grey Fuzzy Relation Analysis for Fuzzy Fault Tree of Ship Collision of Human Errors

Abstract

In the process of ship collision avoidance, the occurrence of human errors and its probability are stochastic and fuzzy. It is difficult to use the traditional Fault Tree Analysis method to carry out the quantitative analysis. To solve the problem, the fuzzy fault tree of ship collision from human errors was established by using fuzzy numbers to represent the occurrence probability of basic events and top event. And the grey relational analysis method was applied to the qualitative and quantitative analysis of fuzzy fault tree. The fuzzy significance set of the basic events was taken as a reference sequence, while the characteristic matrix made up of minimal cut sets was taken as a comparative sequence. The failure mode of human factor which may greatly influence the occurrence of ship collision was obtained by calculating the relational degrees between the fault mode of human factor represented by the minimal cut set and ship collision accident, which provides a reference for decision making to reduce the impact of human errors on ship collision accident..