Trimono Trimono, Di Asih I Maruddani, Prisma Hardi Aji Riyantoko, I. G. S. Mas Diyasa
{"title":"Geometric Brownian Motion and Value at Risk For Analysis Stock Price Of Bumi Serpong Damai Ltd","authors":"Trimono Trimono, Di Asih I Maruddani, Prisma Hardi Aji Riyantoko, I. G. S. Mas Diyasa","doi":"10.33005/ijdasea.v1i1.3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Investment is one of the activities that last actually attractive to the people of Indonesia. One of\n the most widely traded financial assets in the capital market is stocks. Stock prices frequently experience\n challenges to predict changes, so they can increase or decrease at any time. One method that can be applied\n to predict stock prices is GBM. Then, the risk can be measured using the VaR risk measure. The GBM model is\n determined to be accurate in predicting the stock price of BSDE.JK, with a MAPE value of 5.17%. By using\n VaR-HS and VaR CFE, the prediction of risk of loss at the 95% confidence level for the period 06/07/21 is\n -0.0597 and -0.0623","PeriodicalId":220622,"journal":{"name":"Internasional Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Anaylitics","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Internasional Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Anaylitics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.33005/ijdasea.v1i1.3","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Investment is one of the activities that last actually attractive to the people of Indonesia. One of
the most widely traded financial assets in the capital market is stocks. Stock prices frequently experience
challenges to predict changes, so they can increase or decrease at any time. One method that can be applied
to predict stock prices is GBM. Then, the risk can be measured using the VaR risk measure. The GBM model is
determined to be accurate in predicting the stock price of BSDE.JK, with a MAPE value of 5.17%. By using
VaR-HS and VaR CFE, the prediction of risk of loss at the 95% confidence level for the period 06/07/21 is
-0.0597 and -0.0623
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