Screening of load patterns and transmission planning alternatives using decision trees

Abstract

The idea of using power system models in problem solving and decision analysis is really not new, and is certainly not tied to the use of computers. At some point, all of us have used a modeling approach to make a decision. A typical decision tree is used to identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal. This paper describes two methodologies for finding optimal solutions to budgeting and planning processes with the use of decision trees. The first methodology describes Load Patterns for building better load profiles for generators that may help a Plant Manager to optimally budget the operating costs of a generating unit. A second methodology shows a process of screening Transmission alternatives for identifying optimal solutions based on cost and network security. Decision Trees help make good decisions, but cannot guarantee that good outcomes will always occur as a result of those decisions. However, using a structured modeling approach to decision making should produce good outcomes more frequently than making decisions in a more haphazard manner.