ENERJİ KULLANIMI VE BAŞLICA MAKROEKONOMİK GÖSTERGELER ETKİLEŞİMİ VE BU ETKİLEŞİM BAĞLAMINDA TÜRKİYE’NİN DÜNYA İÇİNDEKİ YERİ

Selay GİRAY YAKUT, Selin Devrim ÖZDEMİR YAZGAN, N. Bacaksiz, Halit Fikir
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Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between variables determined by following the literature and to investgate the place of Turkey in terms of those variables by multivariate analysis techniques. After that, linear and nonlinear relationships between variables were analyzed using time series econometric techniques for the countries exhibiting the same structure with Turkey. Within the concept of this study, the relationship between the variables has been analyzed using correlation analysis for world countries and significant relationships were found. Then, the relationship structure was investigated by Factor Analysis. Then, the relationship structure was investigated with Factor Analysis, one of the multivariate statistical analysis techniques. In terms of five variables aforementioned, countries in the world were grouped according to their similarities by using cluster analysis, one of the multivariate statistical analysis techniques and it was determined that Brazil, Chile, Uruguay are structurally most similar countries with Turkey, in terms of relationships between variables. This finding was also supported by the ranking factor scores. The causal relationship between macroeconomic variables were analyzed by time series econometrics techniques for the countries exhibiting the similar structure with Turkey. As a result of the nonlinear causality analysis applied, causality relationship between energy consumption and core inflation were found for all countries.
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能源使用与主要宏观经济指标之间的相互作用,以及土耳其在这种相互作用中的世界地位
本研究的主要目的是研究通过以下文献确定的变量之间的关系,并通过多变量分析技术调查土耳其在这些变量方面的地位。之后,使用时间序列计量经济学技术对与土耳其表现出相同结构的国家进行变量之间的线性和非线性关系分析。在本研究的概念内,使用相关分析对世界各国的变量之间的关系进行了分析,发现了显著的关系。然后,运用因子分析法对关系结构进行了研究。然后,利用多元统计分析技术之一的因子分析对其关系结构进行了研究。就上述五个变量而言,通过使用多变量统计分析技术之一的聚类分析,将世界各国根据其相似性进行分组,并确定巴西,智利,乌拉圭在变量之间的关系方面与土耳其在结构上最相似。这一发现也得到了排名因素得分的支持。采用时间序列计量经济学方法分析了与土耳其结构相似的国家宏观经济变量之间的因果关系。通过非线性因果分析,发现各国能源消费与核心通货膨胀之间存在因果关系。
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