Prediction of halloween storm with automated solar activity prediction tool (ASAP)

Abstract

The Halloween storm, which occurred late October early November 2003, caused serious problems including damaging 28 satellites, knocking two out of commission, diverting airplane routes and causing power failures. In this paper, we tested our fully Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP) tool with the solar data corresponding to this period. The prediction capability of the tool is evaluated using various performance measures. With this study we are aiming to answer if solar flares during Halloween storm could have been predicted using ASAP and if ASAP can be used for the prediction of such extreme events in the future.