Drivers of COVID-19 protest across localities in Israel: a machine-learning approach

IF 1.8 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Political Research Exchange Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI:10.1080/2474736x.2023.2257368
Nina Schlager, Karsten Donnay, Hyunjung Kim, Ravi Bhavnani
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Abstract

Anti-government protests emerged globally in response to COVID-19 countermeasures. What are the key drivers of these pandemic-related protests, and to what extent do they differ from the drivers of non-COVID protests? We examine these questions in the context of Israel, which faced a growing political crisis at the start of the pandemic, effectively blurring the distinction between different causes of protest. Our data features 1,922 protests across 189 Israeli localities for the period between March and July 2022. Using a machine learning approach, we find that all protests, regardless of whether they were directly related to the pandemic or not, were motivated by the same set of key indicators – albeit with the ranking of drivers for COVID-related protests inverted for non-COVID protests. Local infection rates and government responses were more pronounced for the former, whereas differences in residential and commercial property taxes, access to affordable housing, quality of education and demography were among the most important drivers for the latter. Our analysis underscores the role that local governments played in managing the pandemic, and demonstrates that variation in socioeconomic conditions had an important effect on the incidence of protests across Israel.
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以色列各地COVID-19抗议活动的司机:一种机器学习方法
为应对新冠肺炎疫情,全球出现了反政府示威。这些与疫情相关的抗议活动的主要驱动因素是什么?它们与非疫情抗议活动的驱动因素有何不同?我们在以色列的背景下审查这些问题,在大流行病开始时,以色列面临着日益严重的政治危机,有效地模糊了不同抗议原因之间的区别。我们的数据显示,在2022年3月至7月期间,以色列189个地区发生了1922起抗议活动。使用机器学习方法,我们发现所有抗议活动,无论是否与大流行直接相关,都是由同一组关键指标驱动的——尽管与covid相关的抗议活动的驱动因素排名与非covid抗议活动相反。前者的地方感染率和政府反应更为明显,而后者的最重要驱动因素是住宅和商业财产税、可负担住房、教育质量和人口结构的差异。我们的分析强调了地方政府在管理大流行方面发挥的作用,并表明社会经济条件的变化对以色列各地抗议活动的发生率产生了重要影响。
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来源期刊
Political Research Exchange
Political Research Exchange POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
审稿时长
39 weeks
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