Military expenditure, policy syndromes and tourism in the world

Abstract

This study assesses the importance of military expenditure in moderating the role of insecurity dynamics on tourist arrivals or international tourism in 163 countries. It is framed to assess how the future of international tourism can be improved when military expenditure is used as a tool to mitigate perceived and real security risks that potentially reduce international tourists’ arrivals. The empirical evidence is based on Negative binomial regressions. The following main findings are established. Military expenditure significantly moderates violent crimes and perception of criminality to induce a favorable net impact on international tourist arrivals. The corresponding net effect is insignificant and negative for insecurity dynamics of “access to weapons” and “political instability”, respectively. An extended analysis is performed to assess thresholds at which political instability can be moderated for the desired net effect. This threshold is the critical mass at which the unconditional negative impact from political instability is neutralized with military expenditure. Policy implications are discussed.