An Empirical Approximation of the Effects of Trade Sanctions with an Application to Russia

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiad027
Jean Imbs, Laurent Pauwels
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Abstract

Abstract We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions that can readily be computed on the basis of international input-output data. Approximated effects are very close to the exact responses obtained from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model, without having to make difficult calibration choices. We illustrate the approximation with trade sanctions against Russia and obtain estimates well within the existing range. Russia is much more affected by trade sanctions than the EU, even though the importance of EU markets for Russia has been falling, especially since 2014 with China picking up the slack. Within the EU the consequences are largest in ex-“satellite” countries of the Soviet Union: These countries do not typically have access to substitute markets and in fact have historically been highly dependent on Russia. This extreme and persistent dependence is at least partly explained by the existence of specific energy transporting infrastructure (pipelines) that appears to constrain tightly the production of electricity. Our proposed approximation is practical and can be implemented in a variety of contexts: We have developed a web-based dashboard, accessible at exposure.trade that can be used to approximate the costs of trade sanctions for any combinations of sanctioning and sanctioned countries or sectors.
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贸易制裁效果的实证逼近——以俄罗斯为例
我们提出了一种基于数据的贸易制裁影响近似方法,可以根据国际投入产出数据很容易地计算出来。近似的效果非常接近从标准多国多部门模型获得的精确响应,而不必做出困难的校准选择。我们用对俄罗斯的贸易制裁来说明这个近似,并得到了在现有范围内的估计。俄罗斯受贸易制裁的影响要比欧盟大得多,尽管欧盟市场对俄罗斯的重要性一直在下降,尤其是自2014年以来,中国弥补了这一空缺。在欧盟内部,苏联的前“卫星”国家受到的影响最大:这些国家通常无法进入替代市场,事实上,历史上一直高度依赖俄罗斯。这种极端而持久的依赖至少在一定程度上可以用特定的能源运输基础设施(管道)的存在来解释,这些基础设施似乎严格限制了电力的生产。我们提出的近似方法是实用的,并且可以在各种上下文中实现:我们开发了一个基于web的仪表板,可以在暴露时访问。可用于估算制裁与被制裁国家或部门的任何组合的贸易制裁成本的贸易。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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