Factors associated with rural aging in Brazilian municipalities: an analysis using quantile regressions

Camila De Moura Vogt, Adelar Fochezatto
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Abstract

In rural Brazil, aging is an important phenomenon for the future of the country’s agricultural production. This process is associated with both increased life expectancy and rural-urban migration. According to studies on migration, young people are more likely to change their place of residence, being attracted by the existence of work opportunities and, consequently, repulsed by their scarcity. This study assumes the rate of rural aging tends to be higher in places where the ratio of urban to rural work opportunities is high. Thus, using spatial dependence models and quantile analysis of data from the 2017 Agricultural Census, the effects of factors associated with income, agrarian structure, and location on rural aging in Brazilian municipalities were assessed. The results suggest rural areas with low attractiveness situated close to urban centers are the most susceptible to population aging and, consequently, rural depopulation.
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与巴西城市农村老龄化相关的因素:使用分位数回归分析
在巴西农村,老龄化是影响该国农业生产未来的一个重要现象。这一过程与预期寿命延长和农村向城市迁移有关。根据关于移徙的研究,年轻人更有可能改变居住地,因为他们被工作机会的存在所吸引,因此又因工作机会的缺乏而排斥。本研究假设,在城乡就业机会比高的地方,农村人口老龄化率往往更高。因此,利用空间依赖模型和2017年农业普查数据的分位数分析,评估了收入、农业结构和地理位置等相关因素对巴西城市农村老龄化的影响。结果表明,靠近城市中心的吸引力较低的农村地区最容易受到人口老龄化的影响,从而导致农村人口减少。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
18.20%
发文量
30
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊最新文献
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