{"title":"International Finance and Geopolitics","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12436","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>Recent events, notably financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA and its geopolitical allies together with mounting economic and political tensions between the USA and China, have highlighted the role of geopolitics in shaping global monetary and financial relations. What these developments imply for the future will turn on how US–China tensions play out. In what follows I consider two scenarios: the status-quo scenario and the breakdown-in-relations scenario. The former would see ongoing but very gradual international reserve and financial diversification from the dollar to the renminbi. The latter see a bifurcation of the international financial system into two silos centered on the respective currencies, with highly disruptive implications for the global economy.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asian Economic Policy Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aepr.12436","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Recent events, notably financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA and its geopolitical allies together with mounting economic and political tensions between the USA and China, have highlighted the role of geopolitics in shaping global monetary and financial relations. What these developments imply for the future will turn on how US–China tensions play out. In what follows I consider two scenarios: the status-quo scenario and the breakdown-in-relations scenario. The former would see ongoing but very gradual international reserve and financial diversification from the dollar to the renminbi. The latter see a bifurcation of the international financial system into two silos centered on the respective currencies, with highly disruptive implications for the global economy.
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The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.
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