International Finance and Geopolitics

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Asian Economic Policy Review Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI:10.1111/aepr.12436
Barry Eichengreen
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Abstract

Recent events, notably financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA and its geopolitical allies together with mounting economic and political tensions between the USA and China, have highlighted the role of geopolitics in shaping global monetary and financial relations. What these developments imply for the future will turn on how US–China tensions play out. In what follows I consider two scenarios: the status-quo scenario and the breakdown-in-relations scenario. The former would see ongoing but very gradual international reserve and financial diversification from the dollar to the renminbi. The latter see a bifurcation of the international financial system into two silos centered on the respective currencies, with highly disruptive implications for the global economy.

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国际金融与地缘政治
近期发生的事件,特别是美国及其地缘政治盟友对俄罗斯实施的金融制裁,以及美国与中国之间日益加剧的经济和政治紧张局势,凸显了地缘政治在塑造全球货币和金融关系中的作用。这些事态发展对未来的影响将取决于中美紧张局势如何发展。在下文中,我将考虑两种情景:现状情景和关系破裂情景。前者是国际储备和金融从美元到人民币的持续但非常渐进的多元化。后者则是国际金融体系分化为以各自货币为中心的两个孤岛,对全球经济产生极大的破坏性影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
12.90
自引率
2.60%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.
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