Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, and Job Growth: Evidence from US States

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE National Tax Journal Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1086/724973

Robert S. Chirinko, Daniel J. Wilson

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study fiscal foresight using state panel variation in job creation tax credits (JCTCs) and their implementation lags. Using inverse probability weighting to address potential endogeneity, we estimate the dynamic effects of JCTCs during implementation lags, when they go into effect, and afterward. Failing to account for the distorting effects of fiscal foresight results in upwardly biased estimates of their initial impact by about one-third. The true initial impact is small. However, the longer-run cumulative effect is economically significant and implies a fairly low cost per job of approximately $15,000 and a local fiscal multiplier of 1.11–4.22.

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创造就业、税收抵免、财政远见和就业增长:来自美国各州的证据

我们利用创造就业税收抵免(jctc)的州面板差异及其实施滞后研究财政预见性。使用逆概率加权来解决潜在的内生性，我们估计了jctc在实施滞后期间、生效时和之后的动态影响。未能考虑到财政预见的扭曲效应，导致对其初始影响的估计有大约三分之一的高估。真正的初始影响很小。然而，长期累积效应在经济上是显著的，意味着每项工作的成本相当低，约为15 000美元，地方财政乘数为1.11-4.22。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Tax Journal Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.