Climate variability and agricultural productivity in Uganda

IF 0.4 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics-AFJARE Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI:10.53936/afjare.2023.18(1).2
Peter Babyenda, Jane Kabubo-Mariara, Sule Odhiambo
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Abstract

Uganda’s climate is changing in terms of rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, leading to extreme meteorological conditions such as prolonged drought, floods and landslides. Yet the majority (68%) of Ugandans rely largely on rain-fed agriculture, which is affected by climate variability. This study therefore investigates the effect of climate variability on agricultural productivity in Uganda by combining long-term climate data, sourced from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and six waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) spanning the period 2009 to 2019. Trends and the regression analysis estimated with panel data confirm the existence of climate variability, as well as the vulnerability of farming households across Uganda. The empirical results indicate a significant U-shaped impact of precipitation variability on agricultural productivity. This tends to suggest that, as variability in precipitation intensifies, farming households will adapt to the changing precipitation and thereby improve their productivity. The regional and crop-specific analysis show that, relative to other regions of the country, Eastern Uganda is likely to be the region affected the most, while beans and banana are likely to be affected more by climate variability compared to other crops such as maize and cassava. The study thus recommends measures aimed at encouraging farmers to adapt and increase agricultural productivity. There is a need to strengthen the provision of extension services and inform farmers about climate variability
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乌干达的气候变化和农业生产力
乌干达的气候正在发生变化,气温上升,降水模式改变,导致极端气象条件,如长期干旱、洪水和山体滑坡。然而,大多数(68%)乌干达人主要依靠受气候变化影响的雨养农业。因此,本研究通过结合来自美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的长期气候数据,以及2009年至2019年期间乌干达国家小组调查(UNPS)的六波数据,调查了气候变率对乌干达农业生产力的影响。用面板数据估计的趋势和回归分析证实了气候变率的存在,以及乌干达各地农户的脆弱性。实证结果表明,降水变率对农业生产力的影响呈显著的u型。这往往表明,随着降水变异性的加剧,农户将适应不断变化的降水,从而提高生产率。区域和特定作物的分析表明,相对于该国的其他地区,乌干达东部可能是受影响最大的地区,而豆类和香蕉可能比玉米和木薯等其他作物更容易受到气候变化的影响。因此,该研究建议采取措施,鼓励农民适应并提高农业生产率。有必要加强提供推广服务,并使农民了解气候变化
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
16.70%
发文量
8
期刊介绍: The African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (AfJARE)/Journal Africain d’Economie Agricole et des Ressources (JAEAR) is a publication of the African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE). The journal publishes original research about how African agriculture interacts with local and global economic systems and policy regimes in its impacts upon people. The scope of the journal covers the roles of markets, technology, policy, institutions and the natural environment in shaping the lives of well being of Africans engaged in agricultural activities. The journal strives to nurture and enhance the capacity of African professionals to conduct and publish scientific research and provides a venue for communicating and disseminating their findings. Multi-disciplinary, problem-oriented articles are encouraged. Submissions may deal with teaching, research extension, consulting, advising, entrepreneurship and administration. The Chief Editors and Editorial Board, under the general direction of the AAAE President, Executive Committee and Council are charged with implementing Journal policy to serve members of AAAE. The main section of the journal publishes technical research articles while a small section is devoted to publishing brief notes with important policy content and book reviews. The journal is a quarterly publication.
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