The Role of Majority Status in Close Election Studies

Abstract

Abstract Many studies exploit close elections in a regression discontinuity framework to identify partisan effects, that is, the effect of having a given party in office on some outcome. We argue that, when conducted on single-member districts, such design may identify a compound effect: the partisan effect, plus the majority status effect, that is, the effect of being represented by a member of the legislative majority. We provide a simple strategy to disentangle the two, and test it with simulations. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of this issue using real data.