Testing a variant of match-level outcome uncertainty using historical data from the European Champion Clubs’ Cup

Abstract

This study empirically tests a version of the match-level uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) using data from second leg games in the now defunct European Champion Clubs' Cup. The data used cover the playing seasons from its inception in 1955/56 to 1991/92. The context within which the analysis is conducted is deliberately selected to reflect an era when the organization of European soccer was more austere in nature and less affected by the influence of commercialization. The motivation for the focus on second leg games is that these are interpretable as ‘one-off’ sporting contests. This enables the goal difference from the first leg to provide a measure of outcome uncertainty for the second leg match. The empirical analysis yields strong and compelling support for this variant of the UOH.