The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiac001
Clara von Bismarck-Osten, Kirill Borusyak, Uta Schönberg
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Abstract

This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer and fall school holidays across the 16 federal states in Germany using a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption. We show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall had a significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or a spill-over effect on older generations. There is also no evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find that the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopened, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees.
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学校在SARS-CoV-2病毒传播中的作用:来自德国的准实验证据
本文考虑了学校关闭在SARS-CoV-2病毒传播中的作用。为了将关闭的影响与其他遏制措施隔离开来,并确定因果关系,我们利用了德国16个联邦州夏季和秋季学校假期开始和结束日期的差异,采用了交错采用的差异中之差设计。我们的研究表明,无论是夏季关闭还是秋季关闭,都没有对SARS-CoV-2在儿童中的传播产生显著的遏制作用,也没有对老年人产生溢出效应。也没有证据表明暑假后满负荷返校会增加儿童或成人的感染。相反,我们发现,在暑假的最后几个星期,受感染的儿童人数有所增加,而在学校重新开学后的头几个星期,受感染的儿童人数有所减少,我们将这种模式归因于返乡旅行。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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