Seismically-induced landslide probabilistic hazard mapping of Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region, Sichuan Province, China for future seismic scenarios

IF 4 3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geoscience Letters Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI:10.1186/s40562-023-00307-5
Xiaoyi Shao, Siyuan Ma, Chong Xu, Jia Cheng, Xiwei Xu
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Abstract

The purpose of this work is to carry out seismically induced landslide probabilistic hazard mapping for future seismic scenarios of Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region, Sichuan Province, China. Nine earthquake events that occurred in the regions and neighboring areas are selected, which include a total of 251,260 landslide records. This work used 12 influencing factors including elevation, slope, aspect, relief, topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), peak ground motion, distance to active faults, vegetation coverage, distance to roads, lithology, and annual rainfall to establish the LR model. Based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method, the distribution of predicted seismic motion under four earthquake scenarios is calculated including frequent, occasional, rare, and very rare earthquake occurrence. Using the PGA distribution of the four scenarios as input peak ground motion parameters, we calculated the occurrence probability of coseismic landslides in the entire Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region under the action of different ground motions. The result shows that the high-hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the Longmenshan fault zone, and the southern area of Kangding is also a potential high-hazard area for landsliding. Meanwhile, as the probability of exceedance decreases, the probability of corresponding earthquake-induced landslides hazard probability and the area of high-hazard regions also significantly increase. Especially, the Pengguan complex rock mass in the southwest of the Longmenshan fault zone is the potential high-hazard area for coseismic landslides.
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基于未来地震情景的四川阿坝州及成都平原地区地震诱发滑坡概率灾害图
本研究的目的是对阿坝州和成都平原地区未来地震情景进行地震诱发滑坡的概率危险性制图。选取了发生在该地区及周边地区的9次地震事件,其中包括251260次滑坡记录。本文利用高程、坡度、坡向、地形起伏、地形湿度指数(TWI)、地形位置指数(TPI)、地表运动峰值、与活动断层的距离、植被覆盖度、与道路的距离、岩性和年降雨量等12个影响因素建立了LR模型。基于概率地震危险性分析(PSHA)方法,计算了频繁地震、偶尔地震、罕见地震和极罕见地震四种地震情景下的预测地震运动分布。以4种情景的PGA分布作为输入峰值地震动参数,计算了不同地震动作用下整个阿坝州和成都平原区同震滑坡发生概率。结果表明,滑坡高发区主要集中在龙门山断裂带,康定南部地区也是滑坡潜在高发区。同时,随着超出概率的降低,相应的地震诱发滑坡灾害概率和高危险区面积也显著增加。特别是龙门山断裂带西南部的彭关杂岩体是同震滑坡的潜在高发区。
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来源期刊
Geoscience Letters
Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
2.50%
发文量
42
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊介绍: Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.
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