Evaluating the Effectiveness of School Closure in COVID-19-Related Syndromes From Community-Based Syndromic Surveillance: Longitudinal Observational Study.

Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, a school closure policy was adopted to prevent cluster transmission in schools and subsequent household transmission. However, the effectiveness of school closure is not consistent in studies conducted in different countries.

Objective: This study aimed to explore the association between school closure and the daily standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in an outpatient syndromic surveillance system.

Methods: We calculated the incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes derived from a community-based syndromic surveillance system between the first week of January and the second or fourth weeks after school closure in 2021 and 2022 in Taipei City, Taiwan. The effect of school closure on the standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes was evaluated by interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average with a distributed lag function. The exogenous variables were changes in human mobility measured by Google COVID-19 community mobility reports. Furthermore, the models quantified the influence of different age groups and the hierarchy of medical facilities, such as clinics or community hospitals.

Results: School closure was only negatively and significantly associated with the overall standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in 2021 for 2 weeks after the intervention (coefficient -1.24, 95% CI -2.40 to -0.08). However, in different age groups, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 13-18 years and ≥65 years for 2 weeks after the intervention in clinics in 2021. In community hospitals, school closure was significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among people aged 19-24 years in 2021. In 2022, 2 weeks after the intervention, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 0-6, 7-12, and 19-24 years in community hospitals and aged >45 years in clinics. Furthermore, the standardized incidence was positively associated with movement change toward grocery and pharmacy stores in all age groups in 2022. In addition, movement changes toward residences were significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among all age groups.

Conclusions: Overall, school closure effectively suppresses COVID-19-related syndromes in students owing to the reduction of physical contact. In addition, school closure has a spillover effect on elderly people who stay at home.