Post-2023 Türkiye earthquake risk assessment of cascade dams in upper Euphrates basin

Abstract

The southeastern region of Türkiye faced two significant earthquakes on February 6, 2023, causing widespread destruction and substantial damage to various infrastructures. Over forty large dams in the region were affected, leading to potential new earthquake-prone areas due to energy accumulation in neighboring regions. This study focuses on the seismic risk of eight cascade dams on the Peri River, a tributary of the Euphrates main river, following these earthquakes. The dams, including Kalecik, Kigi, Konaktepe, Ozluce, Pempelik, Seyrantepe, Tatar, and Uzuncayir, with heights ranging from 31 m to 146 m, are situated in a region influenced by the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The research advocates for a comprehensive re-analysis of certain large dams, considering the updated seismic specifications and seismological maps of Türkiye. The study explores the hazard and overall risk assessment of these dams, emphasizing the cascade system and highlighting the critical seismic vulnerabilities of Kigi and Ozluce dams, with a particular focus on their implications for water security in the region. Our findings underscore the need for tailored safety measures for each dam, focusing on early defect detection. By adopting a proactive stance and implementing our recommendations, the resilience of these dams can be enhanced, contributing to the overall water security of the region.