Using the methods of mathematical statistics to select options for offshore deep-sea oil and gas fields for Arctic conditions

Abstract

The essence of the method of expert assessments lies in the rational organization of the analysis of the problem by experts with the quantitative assessment of judgments and the processing of their results. The offshore deep-sea oil and gas field was chosen as the object of study and a survey of experts was conducted on the options for choosing fields depending on the criteria related to a particular group of indicators, such as: natural and climatic conditions, arrangement, development, and safety of the field. At the next stage of the study, for each of the groups of indicators, an analysis of variance was carried out, designed to find the level of influence of the criteria on the presented fishing options. The criteria were compared with each other and which of them differed from each other were determined. The study showed that the use of statistical analysis methods makes it possible to formalize the procedures for collecting, summarizing and analyzing the opinions of specialists in order to transform them into the most convenient form for making an informed decision. Keywords: mathematical statistics; expert evaluation; statistical analysis; offshore oil and gas industry; deep-water fields.