Jorge Navarro, Antonio Arriaza, Alfonso Suárez-Llorens
{"title":"Predicting failure times of coherent systems","authors":"Jorge Navarro, Antonio Arriaza, Alfonso Suárez-Llorens","doi":"10.1002/nav.22169","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The article is focused on studying how to predict the failure times of coherent systems from the early failure times of their components. Both the cases of independent and dependent components are considered by assuming that they are identically distributed (homogeneous components). The heterogeneous components' case can be addressed similarly but more complexly. The present study is for non-repairable systems, but the information obtained could be used to decide if a maintenance action should be carried out at time <math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:nav:media:nav22169:nav22169-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/nav22169-math-0001.png\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n<semantics>\n<mrow>\n<mi>t</mi>\n</mrow>\n$$ t $$</annotation>\n</semantics></math>. Different cases are considered regarding the information available at time <math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:nav:media:nav22169:nav22169-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/nav22169-math-0002.png\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n<semantics>\n<mrow>\n<mi>t</mi>\n</mrow>\n$$ t $$</annotation>\n</semantics></math>. We use quantile regression techniques to predict the system failure times and to provide prediction intervals. The theoretical results are applied to specific system structures in some illustrative examples.","PeriodicalId":49772,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Naval Research Logistics","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.22169","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The article is focused on studying how to predict the failure times of coherent systems from the early failure times of their components. Both the cases of independent and dependent components are considered by assuming that they are identically distributed (homogeneous components). The heterogeneous components' case can be addressed similarly but more complexly. The present study is for non-repairable systems, but the information obtained could be used to decide if a maintenance action should be carried out at time . Different cases are considered regarding the information available at time . We use quantile regression techniques to predict the system failure times and to provide prediction intervals. The theoretical results are applied to specific system structures in some illustrative examples.
文章的重点是研究如何从组件的早期失效时间预测连贯系统的失效时间。通过假设独立组件和从属组件是同分布的（同质组件），考虑了这两种情况。异质组件的情况也可以类似处理，但更为复杂。本研究针对的是不可修复的系统，但所获得的信息可用于决定是否应在 t$$ t $$ 时间采取维护行动。我们考虑了时间 t$$ t $$ 可用信息的不同情况。我们使用量子回归技术来预测系统故障时间，并提供预测区间。在一些示例中，我们将理论结果应用于特定的系统结构。
期刊介绍：
Submissions that are most appropriate for NRL are papers addressing modeling and analysis of problems motivated by real-world applications; major methodological advances in operations research and applied statistics; and expository or survey pieces of lasting value. Areas represented include (but are not limited to) probability, statistics, simulation, optimization, game theory, quality, scheduling, reliability, maintenance, supply chain, decision analysis, and combat models. Special issues devoted to a single topic are published occasionally, and proposals for special issues are welcomed by the Editorial Board.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
