Changes in Hydrothermal Conditions in Southern Siberia in 1950–2020 and Their Relation to Large-scale Circulation Processes

IF 1.4 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923100096

N. N. Voropay, A. A. Ryazanova

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Abstract

The paper presents the dynamics of the hydrothermal coefficients characterizing agroclimatic resources on the territory of Siberia within the coordinates of 50°–65° N, 60°–120° E during modern climate change. The intensity, frequency, and duration of adverse weather phenomena for agriculture (the atmospheric droughts and moisture excess conditions) are analyzed. The Ped’ drought index (\(S\)) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated from the data of 134 weather stations and the ERA5 reanalysis are used as an indicator. In Eastern Siberia and in the west of the analyzed territory, there is an increase in aridity (a trend is 0.2–0.5 per decade). Northern regions of Kazakhstan, the Sayan Mountains, and the West Siberian Plain were characterized by a relative stability of hydrothermal conditions in 1950–2020 (statistically significant changes are not revealed). A direct linear dependence of hydrothermal conditions on large-scale circulation processes have been not detected for most cases. The greatest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients has been obtained for the drought index \(S\) and the SCAND (Scandinavia teleconnection pattern) index.

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1950-2020 年西伯利亚南部热液条件的变化及其与大尺度环流过程的关系

摘要本文介绍了在现代气候变化期间，北纬 50°-65°、东经 60°-120°坐标范围内西伯利亚地区农业气候资源水热系数的动态特征。分析了不利于农业的天气现象（大气干旱和水分过剩条件）的强度、频率和持续时间。根据 134 个气象站的数据和ERA5 再分析计算得出的佩德干旱指数（Ped'drought index）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）被用作指标。在东西伯利亚和分析地区的西部，干旱程度有所上升（趋势为每十年 0.2-0.5）。1950-2020 年，哈萨克斯坦北部地区、萨彦山脉和西西伯利亚平原的水热条件相对稳定（在统计上未发现显著变化）。在大多数情况下，没有发现热液条件与大尺度环流过程有直接的线性关系。干旱指数（S）和斯堪的纳维亚遥联模式（SCAND）指数的相关系数在统计上最为显著。

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来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.